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BNP Paribas looks forward to 2025: The Federal Reserve is expected to stay put for the whole year, and the US yield will rise. The 2025 outlook report released by BNP Paribas on Thursday shows that the yield of US Treasury bonds is expected to rise, and under the strong dollar, it will reach parity against the euro. The bank predicts that with the entry into force of the tariff measures proposed by the incoming Trump administration, the US inflation rate will start to pick up from the middle of next year, prompting the Fed to remain inactive throughout 2025. Calvin Tse, the bank's head of macro strategy for the Americas, said that customers are advised to continue to allocate low US Treasury bonds next year, because they expect that inflation will accelerate from mid-2025 after the soft landing of the economy, and the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds will be 4.65% at the end of the year. Tse also said that inflation is expected to be higher and the Fed is more hawkish next year.There is still a worry about the imbalance between supply and demand. There is limited room for alumina futures to continue to fall. Since the intraday record of 5,540 yuan/ton on December 5, the main contract price of domestic alumina futures has started to fluctuate and fall, reaching a minimum of 5,077 yuan/ton on December 12, with the cumulative maximum decline exceeding 8%. According to industry insiders, the increase of alumina registered delivery brands and the sharp drop in overseas alumina spot quotations have led to the recent decline in alumina futures prices. Although the short-term news in the market is intertwined, the imbalance between supply and demand in the alumina market has not fundamentally improved, so there is limited room for the subsequent decline of alumina futures prices. (CSI)Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhaolian and part-time researcher of Finance Research Institute of Fudan University, said: "Let policy adjustment go ahead of the market curve", and moderately loose monetary policy will intensify countercyclical adjustment. The Central Economic Work Conference determined that the tone of monetary policy in 2025 was "moderately loose", which was not only based on the analysis of the current economic situation, but also fully considered external uncertainties, and combined with the planning of economic work next year.

Macron's visit to Poland to seek a stable ally focused on the Ukrainian issue. On the 12th local time, French President Macron visited Poland and held talks with Polish Prime Minister Tusk. The Ukrainian issue was the focus of discussion between the leaders of the two countries.Boosting consumption will be the top priority of economic work. Among the nine key tasks of economic work next year, "vigorously boosting consumption, improving investment efficiency and expanding domestic demand in all directions" ranks first. Among them, "consumption" has been placed in a more important position. The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that it is necessary to grasp key links to complete the key tasks of economic work next year, and focus on boosting domestic demand, especially consumer demand. Zhao Bo, an associate professor of economics in the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, pointed out that since the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the proportion of China's household consumption in GDP has experienced a short-term rise and a continuous decline, and rebounded around 2009, and it is currently maintained at around 40%. Zhou Qingjie, a professor at the School of Economics of Beijing Technology and Business University, said in the article "Paying attention to the key role of household consumption in expanding domestic demand" that according to the internationally accepted national economic accounting system, household consumption is one of the "four pillars" in GDP, alongside domestic private total investment, government purchase, public investment and net export. From the international comparison, the proportion of Chinese residents' consumption in GDP is at a relatively low level. Therefore, in the process of building a new development pattern in China, the effective practice of expanding domestic demand strategy depends more on the "internal" efforts of residents' departments, so that residents can spend money, rest assured and freely. (Securities Times)The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now at 43,983.32 points, down 165.24 points.

The President of Belarus approved the national defense plan for 2026-2030. According to the website of the President of Belarus on the 12th, President Lukashenko approved the national defense plan for 2026-2030 at the meeting of the Belarusian Security Council that day. Lukashenko pointed out at the meeting that in recent years, the military and political situation around Belarus has deteriorated, individual countries have escalated the situation around Belarus, and European countries' destructive remarks against Belarus have also increased. He stressed that the Belarusian army poses no threat to any country, is a tool to prevent war, and will repel the enemy when the country is invaded.The winning bid rate of US 30-year bonds is 4.535%, which is higher than the pre-issuance transaction rate. The US Treasury continued to issue US$ 22 billion of 30-year bonds, with a winning bid rate of 4.535%. The pre-issuance transaction rate was 4.523% when the tender closed at 1 pm new york time. The proportion of primary dealers was 14.4%, which was higher than the previous one. The proportion of direct bidders was reduced to 19.1%, and the proportion of indirect bidders was increased to 66.5%. The bid multiple is 2.39 times, which is lower than the average of 2.42 times in the past six renewal transactions.Bitcoin fell below $100,000/piece, down 1.15% in the day.